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Brazil's soybean crop had no serious production losses at the end of October despite dry spells in late September and early October that raised El Niño concerns. Early November weather is seen as decisive for the crop.
Soybean supply from Brazil is the main export competitor for US beans; weather risk during planting keeps a modest weather premium in soybeans and meal, though no loss has yet been confirmed.
world-grain.comDrew LernerNov 2, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
