The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% last week and for the first time assessed underlying inflation as generally consistent with its 2% target. UBS says elevated oil prices, high US yields and still-negative Japanese real rates should keep supporting USD/JPY, though the pause reduces the risk of further sharp yen weakness.
Negative real rates in Japan and high US yields widen the yield gap that favors the dollar, which keeps the yen expensive for importers of US feed commodities. Any shift in BoJ tightening would be the main factor that could narrow the gap.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.