
The Canadian dollar held near a six-week high against the US dollar at about 1.3975 as oil prices fell sharply. Trump said his administration has a concept for a new trade deal with Canada, and Carney described a good conversation on trade.
Lower crude weakens the commodity-linked loonie, while trade-deal progress limits tariff risk for Canadian exporters. Feed buyers see limited direct grain impact, but energy costs for freight and processing ease.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.