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Country risk for Brazil rose to 787 basis points at the end of October, its highest since October 2025, after Lula's re-election. The Ibovespa fell 18.1% in reais between October 23 and 30, while Argentina's spread also widened.
Regional risk repricing weakens the Brazilian real and Argentine assets, which can shift the relative competitiveness of South American soymeal and corn exports.
perspectivas.cohen.com.arCohen Aliados Financieros Investment OfficeNov 2, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
