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US independent refiners ran near capacity and their margins tripled in the third quarter because of war-related supply disruptions. Refining crack spreads have eased recently, but refiners expect high margins to persist into next year.
Executives cited tight global supply, higher freight rates and weak gasoline and diesel demand.
Strong refining margins keep diesel prices elevated, raising feed and farm transport costs, while the Venezuelan and Canadian crude flows affect heavy crude pricing.
worldports.orgSophie BeckerNov 2, 2026After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
