
Pakistan urea sales are expected to reach 487,000 tons in October 2026, up 39% year-on-year but down about 20% from September, according to Topline Securities. January-October sales are projected at 4.9 million tons, up 7% year-on-year, with industry urea inventory rising to 724,000 tons.
Rising inventories and a monthly sales dip point to softer near-term urea demand in Pakistan, a modest bearish signal for urea and related nitrogen pricing in South Asia.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.