The dollar eased 0.5% to 101.45 against major currencies ahead of US midterm elections, while the euro rose to $1.1234 and sterling to $1.3445. Brent crude fell 3.8% on growing hopes for a diplomatic end to the US-Iran conflict.
A softer dollar and lower crude reduce energy and input costs and can support dollar-priced grain demand, while the easing in Middle East tensions lowers the supply-risk premium on oil and diesel.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.