
Oil declined after reports that Trump wants to give Iran diplomacy more time before potentially resuming strikes after the midterms. Brent dropped toward $110 and WTI neared $101, with attacks on vessels near Hormuz continuing.
Reduced near-term escalation risk lowers the geopolitical premium on crude, easing diesel and fertilizer input costs for feed production. Renewed strikes after the elections remain a risk that could quickly reverse the decline.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.