The 2018 Farm Bill's latest extension expired September 30, leaving Congress without a new long-term agriculture policy. Crop insurance and SNAP continue, while some conservation, research, rural development, trade and energy programs face funding uncertainty; commodity and dairy support measures are set to expire December 31.
Lapsing programs add policy uncertainty for US producers, but USDA can keep programs running administratively through year-end, so near-term supply and price effects are limited.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.