
Energy Aspects analyst Erisa Pasko said Ukraine's role as a winter gas importer or exporter is a major uncertainty for European gas prices. TTF front-month traded at €103.81/MWh on November 1, up about 5.5% on the session, after European storage started the season at record lows.
Low European storage and a TTF price above €100/MWh raise the cost of gas-fired power and fertiliser production in Europe, supporting firm energy-linked feed and fertiliser costs into winter.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.