
Oil prices slipped more than 1% in early Asian trade on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent fell to $111.92 a barrel and WTI to $102.34.
Hopes of a deal to end the Iran war ease the risk premium on crude, which feeds through to diesel and energy costs for feed mills and farms. Any credible deal would likely push prices lower, while a breakdown would reverse the move.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.