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A weekly FreightWaves oil review examined how the Dallas Federal Reserve estimates shale production costs. The Dallas Fed said the long-dated WTI futures curve on CME is the best measure of marginal supply cost.
The article contrasts this with earlier estimates of shale breakeven costs near $75-$80 per barrel.
If the long-dated futures curve reflects marginal shale cost, that level acts as a soft floor on sustained crude prices, since shale output would slow if prices stayed below it.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonMay 25, 2019After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
