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Pakistan has not granted overland transit for 1.7 lakh tonnes of Indian wheat bound for Afghanistan, which faces a food crisis. India has taken the matter to the WTO and is exploring routes via Iran.
Blocked transit keeps a small volume of Indian wheat out of Afghan demand, with limited effect on global prices. The dispute mainly affects regional trade routes.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.