
Demonetisation in India has reduced arrivals of farm commodities, causing exporters to miss November delivery commitments for cotton, groundnut and soya meal. Cotton exporters shipped about 700,000 bales against an order book of two million, and forward contracts for January have been halted.
Lower Indian export deliveries and cancelled orders reduce near-term supply to world markets for cotton and soymeal, which tends to support prices for those products while the cash shortage lasts.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.