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On December 26, 2016, Egypt's Ministry of Trade and Industry issued Decree 1353/2016, which raised export duties on nitrogen fertilizers for one year. The measure was later extended in a 2017 decree without changes.
Higher export duties in Egypt reduce the nitrogen fertilizer that reaches world markets, which tightens supply and supports urea and ammonia prices.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.