
Risk managers at h@ms Marketing Services say slaughter hog supplies are running about 3-4% above year-ago levels, and attention has shifted to demand. Wholesale pork prices have been steady, and export demand, especially uncertainty over renegotiating NAFTA, is seen as the key risk.
Uncertainty over pork export access to Mexico could weaken demand and hog prices, which would reduce feed demand from the hog sector.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.