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August lean hog futures recently traded near $1.16 per pound, the highest since mid-2014. Analysts expect US pork exports to China to dry up, leaving excess supply without a buyer at current high prices.
Losing a major export outlet would leave more pork domestically, pressuring cutout values and hog futures from their highs.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.