European biodiesel premiums fell to six-month lows last week, with FAME 0 at $432/ton and RME at $450.25/ton, following lower vegetable oil prices. Low Rhine river levels limited loading to about 800 tons on Monday, so product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region could not move.
Weak biodiesel premiums and stranded stocks point to softer soybean oil and rapeseed oil demand in Europe. The Rhine low-water constraint is restricting physical flows and keeping regional prices under pressure.
After 13 past bearish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.