
UK nitrogen fertiliser prices are 40 to 50 percent higher than in July 2016, driven largely by urea. China's shift from exporting to possibly importing urea, a pending second Indian urea purchase of up to one million tonnes, and lower-than-expected US output are tightening global supply.
Global urea tightness from China, India and the US sustains higher nitrogen costs, which feeds through to grain production costs and farm input budgets.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.