
Canadian economic data is running at its strongest relative to expectations since 2010, yet the Canadian dollar has weakened. WTI has fallen 12% since the start of March, and the Bank of Canada remains dovish.
Governor Poloz was due to speak the following day.
Lower crude prices are cutting Canada's terms of trade and weighing on the loonie, which marginally supports Canadian export competitiveness for oilseeds and meals.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.