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Allendale analyst Rich Nelson says the avian flu outbreak on a Tennessee broiler farm is not a major market-moving event at this point. He does not expect new bans beyond those already in place, apart from South Korea and perhaps one or two others.
He warns that continued outbreaks could affect feed markets, including corn and soymeal.
Limited trade fallout means little near-term change in feed demand. Continued spread could raise poultry-related feed demand concerns later in 2017.
brownfieldagnews.comMar 7, 2017After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
