
The U.S. dollar slipped to a one-month low against a basket of currencies as investors bet the Federal Reserve would ease policy to counter the coronavirus outbreak. Futures implied a 50 basis point cut at the March 17-18 meeting, and U.S. manufacturing growth slowed in February.
Expectations of Fed easing weaken the dollar, which can lift dollar-denominated commodity prices, while weak factory activity signals softer demand.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On 2 March the dollar slipped to a one-month low as futures priced a 50bp Fed cut and US manufacturing slowed, which directly explains the one-day drop.