
University of Illinois economists say the USDA Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings show 4 million fewer US corn acres and 6 million more soybean acres. They expect 2017/18 corn stocks to decline modestly and soybean stocks to swing to a surplus.
They forecast unchanged to higher corn prices and significantly lower soybean prices.
The shift in acreage and stocks supports corn prices while putting downward pressure on soybeans and soy meal for feed buyers.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.