Argentine biodiesel exporters warned that US anti-dumping duties, requested by the National Biodiesel Board, could make their exports unviable. The US took 90 percent of Argentina's 1.6 million tonnes of biodiesel exports in 2016, and the EU and Peru have already restricted imports.
A US hearing is scheduled for next month.
Losing the US biodiesel market would push Argentine supply into a small domestic market, lowering soybean oil demand from biofuel processing and weighing on soybean oil prices. The outcome of the US hearing is the key uncertainty.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.