
Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 3% on August 18 to a one-week closing low, after a record high the previous week. Export shipments in the first half of August fell 15% to 24% from July, and Indian demand was covered for August with subscriptions for September-October stalling.
Indonesia's higher export duties were expected to shift demand toward Malaysia from September.
Weaker export demand and slowing Indian purchases pressure palm oil prices, which also weigh on competing vegetable oils. Higher Indonesian export taxes are expected to shift some trade flows to Malaysia.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.