
University of Missouri researchers forecast mild weather and moderate rainfall for the summer, which could lift Missouri corn and soybean yields by 5 to 10 percent. Yields in southeast Missouri are projected to be slightly lower.
Forecasters also expect El Niño to return this year.
A forecast for above-average yields in a major Midwest state is mildly bearish for corn and soybean prices if it holds, though it is a regional research projection rather than a confirmed outcome.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.