
Mintec's August 2017 commodity price update shows Canadian milling wheat up 13.5% month-on-month on hot, dry weather that is cutting its 2017/18 crop forecast by 11%. EU milling wheat rose 7.3% on concern over US production, which is forecast down 24% year-on-year.
EU butter and skim milk powder also hit high levels.
Lower Canadian and US crop forecasts tighten world wheat supply and push import prices up. Weather-driven shortfalls support the wheat complex.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.