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India's Agriculture Minister asked state chief ministers to review measures for a possible monsoon failure. The IMD's first forecast projects rainfall at 96 percent of the long-period average for Kharif 2017, with an updated forecast due in June.
A risk of sub-par monsoon rainfall could cut kharif rice and pulse output and support Indian domestic prices, though the forecast is still preliminary.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.