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A weekly trade review says Brazilian President Michel Temer's alleged bribery of officials caused the Brazilian real to collapse during the week of May 15. Soybean values spiked as Brazilian farmers were expected to sell more.
The column also notes weak US corn export competitiveness and China's large corn stocks, along with China lowering corn import taxes.
A weaker real can prompt Brazilian soybean selling that competes with US exports, while China's stocks and import tax changes will shape global corn demand.
leadertelegram.comKarl SetzerMay 22, 2017After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 16 past bullish trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
