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The EIA's June Short-Term Energy Outlook expects global oil markets to tighten in the third quarter of 2017 before loosening through 2018. OPEC's production target stays at 32.5 million b/d through the end of Q1 2018 after the May extension of cuts.
EIA lowered its 2017 and 2018 OPEC output forecasts while raising the possibility of higher US supply in 2018.
Expected inventory draws in mid-2017 support crude prices near term, but forecast US output growth in 2018 caps the upside. Energy price direction feeds into biofuel margins and freight costs for feed buyers.
eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov)Jul 1, 2017After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
