
QNB commentary argues that OPEC extended its output cut to keep the crude futures curve flat and keep high-cost US shale production uneconomic. It notes US output rose from 8.5 million to 9.3 million barrels per day between October 2016 and May.
Shale growth limits how far OPEC can lift prices, which keeps a ceiling on crude. Sustained flat futures reduce the incentive for new supply that would pressure energy-linked costs.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.