
AFBF market intelligence director John Newton says US corn yield could finish 5-6% below the trend of about 166 bu/acre, with many in the trade discussing a national yield near 165. He expects prices to stay range-bound until USDA's August 10 crop production report.
Planting problems and summer weather are cited as causes.
A yield near 165 bu/acre would tighten US corn supply and could lift feed prices, but the outcome depends on the August USDA report.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.