
Australian wheat and barley prices are showing volatility not seen in three years, with a rally of up to 30% in June and July after 10-year lows at harvest. Producers in the Black Sea and Europe have faced drier, warmer conditions, and Australian rainfall has been below average since planting.
Expected declines in global wheat and barley output are forcing buyers to pay premiums, supporting feed grain prices into the new season.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.