
New US UAN capacity from CF Industries and OCI, totaling 3.1 million tonnes, has allowed the US to cut import dependence and expand exports, with exports exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2016. Argentina's US import share rose from 15% in 2014 to 75% in 2016.
Growing US export availability at low prices pressures global nitrogen margins and shifts trade flows away from traditional exporters, which tends to keep international nitrogen prices soft.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.