
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center projects a neutral ENSO state for winter 2017-18, with no El Niño or La Niña expected. The outlook also calls for warmer-than-average temperatures and normal rainfall in the Pacific Northwest from August through October.
A neutral winter outlook from NOAA points to no large ENSO-driven weather shock to US crops in the near term, leaving feed grain prices more reliant on the northern Plains drought and USDA data.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.