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Reuters' Braun says that without significant heat in the first three weeks of July, U.S. corn yield is unlikely to fall far below trend despite expected dryness. The pollination period is the key window for heat damage.
The view that yields will hold near trend limits upside for corn prices and keeps feed grain supplies comfortable. A heat event during pollination would change this outlook.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.