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Danske Bank senior analyst Morten Helt expects the Brazilian real to strengthen further in the coming months, forecasting USD/BRL at 3.00 versus a Bloomberg consensus of 3.25 for Q4 2017. The real has rallied for three straight days, with USD/BRL down almost 1.5% over that span, after Brazilian lawmakers backed President Temer and his economic reform agenda.
A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports less competitive in dollar terms, which can support US and world feed prices at the margin. The call is a currency view rather than a supply event, so the impact on feed prices is modest.
cn.octabroker.comAug 25, 2017After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
