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Credit Suisse says USD/BRL could fall as low as 5.00 in the near term on strong inflation data and a supportive external outlook. The bank remains cautious because of political risk and flow conditions.
It expects a tactical pullback toward 5.30-5.35 to become attractive afterward.
A move lower in USD/BRL makes Brazilian grain and soy exports more expensive in dollar terms relative to local currency costs, which can weigh on export prices. It is a forecast, and the bank itself expects a later pullback.
octaafrica.netDec 9, 2020After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
