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Flooding closed the Rhine, cutting barge traffic that moves gasoil, diesel and gasoline between ARA and inland Europe. Barge freight rates from ARA up the Rhine did not change in July, and oil product differentials showed little reaction.
The river closure tightens inland diesel supply and could draw ARA stocks, but thin trading and low freight rates limit the price impact.
After 153 past logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -2.7% to +4.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.