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European diesel traders are divided over whether shipping ULSD to the US Atlantic Coast is economical. A record HOGO spread of 15.73 cents/gal suggests profits are possible, while freight costs and RFS obligations make others see losses of $3-$5/mt.
Around 220,000 mt of European ULSD is set to arrive on the US Atlantic Coast in January, down from 730,000 mt in December.
A reopening transatlantic arbitrage would pull more diesel into the US, easing distillate tightness and modestly supporting or capping diesel prices, with limited direct effect on feed commodities.
spglobal.comChris To, Rowan Staden-CoatsJan 28, 2021After 153 past logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -2.7% to +4.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
