The August WASDE came in above expectations, with US corn, soybean and wheat futures falling about 4% after the release. Russian wheat production was raised 5.5Mt to 77.5Mt, Ukraine was raised 2.5Mt and Kazakhstan 1Mt, and funds added to the selling.
Higher US and Black Sea supply estimates add to global feed and grain stocks, which pressures prices across corn, soybeans and wheat. The selling by funds adds to the downward move.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.