The Grain Industry Association of WA raised its August estimate of the state's potential winter crop to 10.171 million tonnes, up from 7.826Mt in July. Recent rain fell across most cropping zones, though the Geraldton and Kwinana zones remain very low.
Oats are the exception to an otherwise near-average outlook.
A larger Western Australian crop adds exportable wheat and barley supply, which is bearish for Australian grain prices. The gain is still well below last year's crop.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.