
Yellen's Jackson Hole speech contained no clues on interest rates, disappointing traders. Futures pricing fell to less than a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end, and the dollar fell against major currencies while gold rose.
Lower rate-hike odds weaken the dollar, which supports dollar-priced commodities and can reduce the cost of imported feed inputs for some buyers.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.