OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and Sanctions Update: Connecting the Dots

After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Feb 19, 2021Saudi Arabia and Russia at odds before crucial OPEC meeting+5.0%
• May 30, 2018Saudi Arabia, OPEC and non-OPEC producers to continue cooperation until end of 2018 - Reuters — Octa-1.9%
• Sep 11, 2019Saudi Arabia and Russia call for OPEC+ cohesiveness with supply cuts+3.3%
• Feb 1, 2017Saudi Arabia cannot escape destiny as swing producer: Kemp-1.1%
• May 31, 2018Today.Az - OPEC supply rebalancing continues to be the primary-5.1%

After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 19, 2021Saudi Arabia and Russia at odds before crucial OPEC meeting+4.3%
• May 30, 2018Saudi Arabia, OPEC and non-OPEC producers to continue cooperation until end of 2018 - Reuters — Octa-1.1%
• Sep 11, 2019Saudi Arabia and Russia call for OPEC+ cohesiveness with supply cuts+2.4%
• Nov 30, 2017Saudi Arabia joins OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee - Business & Economy - TASS-2.7%
• Dec 1, 2023Skepticism and Confusion: What Analysts Say About the OPEC+ Cuts - Bloomberg-9.9%