
Saudi Arabia and Russia are taking opposing positions ahead of an OPEC+ meeting, with Riyadh urging caution and favoring holding output steady, while Moscow wants a supply increase. Saudi Arabia's 1 million barrels per day voluntary cut is a bargaining chip, and the cartel is still withholding about 7 million barrels per day.
Prices had rebounded to a one-year high.
The outcome of the dispute will determine whether roughly 7% of global supply returns to the market. A deal to restore barrels would add supply, while a hold would keep the market tighter.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.