
An Iowa Farm Bureau analysis notes drought across parts of the Midwest and High Plains, but says it is not widespread enough to lift prices. USDA corn yield expectations are 169.5 bu/acre and soybeans 49.4 bu/acre, with USDA price forecasts of $3.30 corn and a $9.30 soybean midpoint.
Localized drought losses are offset by strong yields elsewhere, so the balance sheet stays comfortable and prices see limited support from weather.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.