Oil prices soared more than 3 percent on September 25, with Brent at its highest since July 2015 and WTI at its highest since April. Producers said the market was rebalancing, and Turkey threatened to cut flows from Iraq's Kurdistan region.
A sharp crude rally raises diesel and energy costs across the feed chain and can pull biofuel-linked oilseed and corn prices higher.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.