
Indian monsoon rains were uneven, with the Deep South dry in June and July and all-India rainfall 12.7% below normal in August and 31.3% below so far in September. The agriculture ministry is due to release first advance kharif output estimates, with production expected to fall short of last year.
A weaker Indian kharif harvest could tighten domestic supplies and lift import demand for rice, pulses and other feed-relevant crops.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.