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ANZ economists argue the PBoC is balancing financial stability against the economic benefits of a weaker currency, and that Chinese authorities are more concerned about yuan depreciation. The note links recent yuan swings to the CFETS basket and to the upcoming Party Congress and capital account policy.
Expectations of a managed yuan shape the cost of dollar-priced feed imports into China over coming months. The analysis is background and does not itself move prices.
anz.com.auDavid Qu, Betty Wang China Markets Economist, Senior China Economist, ANZOct 4, 2017After 169 past neutral macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
