In an October 19 letter to lawmakers, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said the agency will keep 2018 renewable fuel volumes at or above proposed levels. The EPA also dropped plans to allow exported ethanol to count toward quotas and rejected shifting the blending obligation from refiners.
The move followed opposition from Midwestern senators.
Keeping biofuel volumes at or above proposed levels supports demand for soybean oil and corn used for ethanol, which is bullish for those prices. Ending the uncertainty over the RFS removes a major downside risk for vegetable oils.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.